6:06AM – Pre Open – Looking for gap up today
No post yesterday. Same tape.
Sideways. Then down.
Late, it changed.
I closed my QQQ puts before the turn.
Tech held.
QQQ firmed.
The Nasdaq tried to lift.
SPY vs RSP flat.
iShares Semiconductor ETF still loose, but no new lows.
Leaders lead both ways.
Late day, bids came in.
I changed with it.
Closed shorts—puts, ProShares Short QQQ, ProShares Short S&P500.
Short → flat → long.
Built QQQ into the close.
Now long.
I aim for steady.
I hate drawdowns.
I hate losing money.
So I wait.
Then I act.
Odds:
Up gap, push — most
Flat, then up — next
Dip, then up — less
Else — always
Simple read.
We’ll see.
11:49AM Update – Reading the Tape, Not Forcing the Trade
The market did exactly what it needed to do this morning—gap up. That opened the door for a clean QQQ trade, and I took it. In and out. No complaints.
But once the initial move played out, the tone shifted.
On the 5-minute, we started carving out an A–B–C type structure. Not explosive, not impulsive—more corrective. That’s not the kind of pattern you press. So I closed out the QQQ exposure and stepped aside.
Right here, the market feels like it’s in between gears:
Medium-term trend: drifting down
Longer-term trend: still up
Current action: consolidation after a bounce
That’s a classic spot where traders get chopped trying to predict the next move instead of waiting for confirmation.
I also have price working back toward the prior support zone I mapped out last night. That level matters more than anything happening intraday right now.
From a short-term swing perspective (1–5 days), the “card count” is close to neutral. No strong edge either way.
So the plan is simple:
If momentum builds → re-enter via QQQ
If weakness confirms → lean into PSQ
If neither → do nothing and wait
No need to force a trade when the market isn’t showing its hand.